Wednesday, October 8, 2014
When will central banks in the U.S. and U.K. start raising interest rates? The question preoccupies financial markets, and much turns on the answer. Unemployment has fallen a lot in both countries, its at about 6 percent in both countries this is one percentage point above the rate central banks see as the long-term equilibrium. The real unemployment in the U.S. is about 7.5 due to factors like people who are unemployed and stop looking for a job are not counted as unemployed and many people who want full time work can only find part time work. These forms of disguised unemployment add maybe two percent to labor market slack. Central banks are worried about inflation. The banks need to decide whether or not to keep interest rates at zero of too raise them. I agree with the article that keeping interest rates at zero longer would be better than raising them too soon. As of right now inflation in the U.S. is under control the economy is doing all right.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-01/inflation-panic-will-kill-the-recovery
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I think that unemployment is a problem in more countries than we think. I hope that the US can get it under control.
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